Water and soil resources are essential for the economic and social development of Burundi. Already today, these resources are under severe pressure due to population growth, overexploitation of land and increasing demand for natural resources. Climate change and increasing climate variability could add to these trends and further degrade the availability and quality of water and arable land.

In order to better understand the effects of climate change, a study on climate change projections in Burundi was conducted as part of the GIZ project “Adapting to climate change for the protection of water and soil resources in Burundi” (ACCES). This study is based on the latest regional climate models (RCMs) available for Burundi and two different emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Considering the years 1970 to 1999 as a reference, the study analyzed annual and seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature for the future periods of 2031-2060 and 2071-2099.

This summary highlights the main conclusions of this study as well as the potential socio-economic implications of climate change in Burundi, which are schematically as follows:

• Rainfall in Burundi is expected to increase in general in the eastern and southern regions of the country as well as on the central plateau with more abundant rains.
• Although rainfall is expected to increase during the rainy season, the months leading up to the start of this season (in August/September) are likely to be drier.
• Some of the models used predict a likely extension of the dry season.
• There is a high probability that annual average air temperatures will gradually increase in Burundi during the 21st century.
• The air temperature will increase especially during the dry season.
• Future water surpluses are likely to increase the risk of extreme precipitation.
• Changes in the patterns and quantity of precipitation as well as in temperature are likely to have important implications for agricultural production, especially crops.